https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-025-06639-9
Regular Article
Mathematical modelling of the impact of environmental contamination on Lassa fever: optimal control and economic analysis
1
Department of Mathematics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, 970101, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria
2
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Elizade University, 500 Wuraola Adeojo Street, 340252, Ilara-Mokin, Ondo State, Nigeria
3
Department of Mathematics, Saveetha School of Engineering, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Saveetha University, 602105, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
4
Department of Mathematical and Computing Sciences, Koladaisi University, Km. 18, New Ibadan-Oyo Express Road, 200005, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria
5
Department of Decision Sciences, College of Economic and Management Sciences, University of South Africa, Preller Street, X200028, Mucklenuek Ridge, Pretoria, South Africa
6
Department of Family Medicine, Federal University Teaching Hospital, 950101, Lafia, Nasarawa, Nigeria
Received:
20
April
2025
Accepted:
8
July
2025
Published online:
26
July
2025
Lassa fever remains a persistent and deadly viral disease in West Africa, contributing significantly to public health challenges due to its high morbidity, mortality, and frequent outbreaks. Despite the implementation of various control strategies, the disease continues to resurface, indicating the need for more effective and economically viable interventions. This study develops and analyzes an optimal control framework designed to mitigate the spread of Lassa fever while accounting for resource limitations. The model integrates five key control strategies: vector control, personal protection, quarantine of exposed individuals, public health education, and environmental disinfection. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the study derives necessary conditions for optimal control. To evaluate the economic and epidemiological effectiveness of each control strategy, tools such as efficiency analysis, Pareto optimization, Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER), and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) are employed. Simulation results indicate that while combining all five strategies yields the most significant reduction in disease transmission, it is not the most cost-effective solution. Instead, the optimal combination in terms of both impact and economic feasibility is vector control coupled with quarantine of exposed individuals. These findings highlight the importance of prioritizing interventions that offer the greatest health benefits at sustainable costs. Public health policymakers are encouraged to focus resources on this combined approach to reduce environmental contamination, interrupt transmission cycles, and lower the overall burden of Lassa fever in vulnerable populations.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
