https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-025-06466-y
Regular Article
Mathematical analysis and parameter estimation of the 2017–2018 cholera outbreak in Yemen
1
Math and Computing Skills Unit, Preparatory Studies Center, University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Salalah, Oman
2
Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman
3
Department of Applied Mathematics and Science, College of Engineering, National University of Science and Technology, Muscat, Oman
Received:
23
February
2025
Accepted:
22
May
2025
Published online:
16
June
2025
The cholera outbreak in Yemen, spanning from April 2017 to March 2018, represents one of the most severe and widespread epidemics in recent history. Understanding the dynamics of such outbreaks is critical for improving disease prediction, control measures, and resource allocation. This study focuses on the parameter estimation of a mathematical model designed to describe the cholera transmission dynamics during this period. Using a combination of compartmental models and available epidemiological data, we aim to estimate key parameters such as transmission rates, recovery rates, and case fatality rates, which are essential for assessing the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Our mathematical findings show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if 
, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if 
and hence, the system undergoes a transcritical bifurcation. The parameters’ estimation results provide estimation for 
for almost all Yemen’s governates based on data from 2017–2018 outbreak.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
