https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-04702-x
Regular Article
A stochastic discrete-time co-evolution model and its application in simulating the impacts of behavior changes on the secondary and multiple outbreaks of the COVID-19 pandemic
1
Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, 201900, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
2
School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, 710062, Xi’an, People’s Republic of China
b sytang@snnu.edu.cn, sanyitang219@hotmail.com
c
jie_lou@shu.edu.cn
Received:
15
September
2023
Accepted:
15
November
2023
Published online:
6
December
2023
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic discrete-time multi-scale model to quantify the co-evolution of behavior changes and COVID-19. In this model, initial values and parameters of behavior change are used to describe individual behavior before and during the epidemic, and diagnosis rate parameters are used to describe government policies. In order to comprehensively reflect the characteristics of the epidemic in China, the epidemic data of three representative cities were selected for analysis and research based on the principles of traffic status, epidemic outbreak degree and epidemic data distribution. Firstly, the sensitivity analysis of parameters obtained from data fitting of three cities was carried out, respectively. It was found that different cities have different parameter sensitivities, but the sensitivity of initial value of behavior change was the strongest in all the three cities. Secondly, control measures such as phased unlocking were added to observe the impact of these control measures on secondary outbreaks based on behavior changes. Finally, considering that the Chinese government has fully relaxed the control of the epidemic, we further simulated the epidemic curve with only behavior changes and no government policies, and found that under the same behavior change, the epidemic curve in places with more severe outbreaks will change more, revealing the role of behavior change in secondary and multiple outbreaks.
Copyright comment Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
