https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-04305-6
Regular Article
Mathematical modeling of monkeypox infection with optimized preventive control analysis: a case study with 2022 outbreak
1
Department of Mathematics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
2
Department of Mathematics, University of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
3
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, 60115, Surabaya, Indonesia
4
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, 21589, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Received:
25
February
2023
Accepted:
19
July
2023
Published online:
7
August
2023
Monkeypox (MPX) is an emerging infectious disease caused by a MPX virus. Various approaches have been presented in recent literature to examine the epidemiological aspects and possible control of this infection. The objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of MPX and suggest optimal control interventions using a novel epidemic model. We examined the dynamics of MPX disease under the influence of several constant and time-dependent variable control strategies using well-established optimization theory. The model is parameterized using reported cases of infection from the USA, which experienced a significant outbreak in 2022. Initially, a basic mathematical assessment of the model is conducted. The nonlinear least square technique is used to parameterize the model based on reported cases. A thorough sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed. By utilizing sensitivity indices, the model is reconstructed to develop a control problem by incorporating four time-dependent control variables. The optimization of the model is carried out utilizing optimal control theory, and the optimality conditions are established by applying Pontryagin’s maximum principle. To evaluate the significance of different control strategies in eradicating the disease, four alternative scenarios are examined: single, couple, triple, and quadruple controlling interventions. The detailed simulation demonstrating the implication of each strategy on the disease incidence is shown and thoroughly described. The simulation results conclude that the quadruple strategy, which involves implementing all control measures simultaneously, proves to be the most effective approach for minimizing the disease within the community.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
