https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-025-06648-8
Regular Article
Forecasting photovoltaic (PV) power using actual data and estimated models of solar radiation, and ambient and module temperatures
Unité de Recherche en Energies Renouvelables en Milieu Saharien, URERMS, Centre de Développement des Energies Renouvelables, CDER, 01000, Adrar, Algeria
Received:
7
October
2024
Accepted:
14
July
2025
Published online:
5
August
2025
This study compared seven mathematical models to estimate the photovoltaic (PV) power with the actual power data of a 20 MW grid-connected plant installed in Adrar, Algeria. These models use weather values as input data, which are often unavailable; therefore, forecasting is required. To determine the effectiveness of the values used for weather and module temperature (actual or estimated) on PV power estimation, the PV models were calibrated using one solar radiation model and three ambient temperature models. In addition to the five models, the PV module temperature is based on actual and estimated weather conditions. The investigation was conducted over four days under weather conditions (cold and warm) and sky-type (sunny and partly cloudy) conditions. Given the effect of the PV degradation rate on the accuracy of the models, the performance ratio (PR) was used to represent the total losses in the PV plant. The results show that the predicted power using the estimated solar radiation and ambient temperature data gives close results to the actual power data. In particular, the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) varied between 4.57% and 19.43%. Finally, the Osterwald, along with the fill factor both with and without series resistance (FF-Rs and FF, respectively), demonstrated the most accurate models over four days.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
