https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-025-06597-2
Regular Article
Radiological impact of a missile strike on the Zaporizhzhia spent fuel dry storage facility
Institute of Radioprotection (IRP) - Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), 00123, Rome, Italy
Received:
27
March
2025
Accepted:
26
June
2025
Published online:
1
August
2025
Since the early stages of the Ukrainian crisis, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, have been located on the conflict front line. This peculiar situation has prompted national and international institutions, as well as public opinion, to question the potential consequences of incidents or accidents arising from military activities in the surrounding area. Although multiple scenarios are plausible, this study focuses on one of the known vulnerabilities of the plant: the dry storage facility of spent nuclear fuel. In this work, this facility has been identified as potentially subject to an incident triggered by a direct missile strike. Using a Gaussian atmospheric dispersion code, the radiological consequences for both the population and the nuclear power plant site are assessed in the considered case, exploiting a multidisciplinary approach to define model parameters that closely reflect realistic conditions. The source term required by the dispersion code is defined by evaluating several key parameters from publicly available data. The radionuclide inventory of the spent fuel stored in the facility is derived according to the characteristics of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear reactors. Furthermore, a geopolitical and military assessment was carried out to characterize the warhead potentially involved in the accident, as well as an evaluation of the structural parameters of the storage casks to assess the potential extent of damage resulting from the detonation. Satellite-derived data, including population density and environmental variables of the considered region, were extensively used to realistically assess the radiological impact of plume propagation. In particular, the effects on the population were estimated by calculating the number of individuals requiring specific protective actions based on projected dose values. Simultaneously, the potential consequences for the nuclear power plant site were evaluated by analyzing the extent of blast-induced pressure waves and the possible involvement of reactor buildings in the plume path.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
