https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-025-06611-7
Regular Article
Dynamics of diseased-impacted prey populations: defense and Allee effect mechanisms
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Samford University, 35229, Birmingham, AL, USA
Received:
10
March
2025
Accepted:
1
July
2025
Published online:
19
July
2025
This study introduces an innovative framework for merging ecological and epidemiological modeling via the formulation of a sophisticated predator–prey model that addresses the intricacies of disease dynamics, the Allee effect, and defensive mechanisms through prey aggregation. Employing rigorous stability and bifurcation analyses, we identify multiple feasible equilibria and establish critical thresholds that influence population survival and extinction. Our mathematical model reveals that strong Allee effects induce finite-time extinction in prey populations, triggering ecosystem collapse. As the Allee threshold L increases, the susceptible prey population declines faster, crossing critical tipping points where recovery becomes impossible. This collapse propagates through the system, leading to the sequential extinction of infected prey and predators due to their ecological dependence. Our model reveals not only when populations vanish, but how quickly, offering early-warning insights for conservation and control strategies. Furthermore, we identify a critical threshold in prey aggregation that leads to the extinction of infected prey under weak Allee effects. This result highlights the role of social structuring in suppressing disease transmission and suggests that behaviorally driven aggregation can serve as an effective natural disease control mechanism in ecological systems. The combined modulation of the aggregation constant and Allee effect determined three primary ecological outcomes: stable coexistence, disease elimination, or complete population extinction. Moreover, these results have significant implications for wildlife management and ecosystem resilience, providing a solid theoretical framework for interdisciplinary strategies aimed at protecting endangered species.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
