https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-024-05579-0
Regular Article
Outbreak or extinction of TB: insights in presence of chemoprophylaxis using CTMC approach
Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, 781039, Guwahati, India
Received:
29
July
2024
Accepted:
20
August
2024
Published online:
1
September
2024
In this article, we present a deterministic model for tuberculous (TB) infection in presence of chemoprophylaxis and its corresponding stochastic model. We have considered all the possible transmission mechanisms, while developing the model. The stability characterization of the TB free and TB infected steady states are discussed. Next we have formulated the stochastic model using a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) process. We have calculated the stochastic threshold with the help of multi-type branching process. Numerical solutions are presented for the graphical visualizations. Also, we have calculated probability of TB extinction. It is observed that chances of TB extinction is large when it spreads from latent individuals; whereas, it is small when the disease spreads from infected individuals.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
