https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-024-05332-7
Regular Article
Modelling the efficacy of Wolbachia-based mosquito control: a population replacement approach
1
Department of Mathematics, Karimpur Pannadevi College, Karimpur, 741152, Nadia, West Bengal, India
2
Department of Physical Sciences, IISER Kolkata, Mohanpur Campus, 741246, Nadia, West Bengal, India
Received:
13
April
2024
Accepted:
1
June
2024
Published online:
10
June
2024
Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) is a biological tool to control mosquito populations and mosquito-borne diseases. This paper proposes an entomological model describing mosquito population dynamics in the presence of Wolbachia-infected (WI) mosquitoes and investigates the dynamics of Wolbachia transmission in establishing the infection within the wild-type (WT) mosquito population. Using a single-species age-structured mathematical model with the Allee effect on the mosquito population, we observe that the coexistence equilibrium of the model is always unstable. In contrast, the stability at the non-trivial boundary equilibria depends upon certain parametric conditions. Our analysis illuminates the complex interaction among mosquito life-history characteristics, the influx of WT mosquitoes through immigration, and the stability of the mosquito population at the Wolbachia-free and WI steady states. The results demonstrate that mosquito life-history traits, such as a higher level of Allee effect, high intraspecific competition in the juvenile stage, late maturation of juveniles, low survival fitness of WI mosquitoes, and increased immigration of WT mosquitoes, can lead to a sudden shift of regime from WI steady state to a steady state with WT mosquitoes only. To anticipate such potential population replacement, we employ the concept of basin stability to develop an early warning tool that forecasts the forthcoming tipping phenomenon. We show that supplying WI mosquitoes can be a potential intervention strategy upon receiving an early warning signal. Further, we investigate the dynamic optimization of the Wolbachia-based control to achieve a balance between attaining population replacements in the shortest possible time while minimizing the cost of control.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
