https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-024-05066-6
Regular Article
A novel attempt to describe the impact of infectious disease on the nation’s economy: an illustration through the Econo-epidemics model
1
Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203, B. T. Road, 700108, Kolkata, India
2
National Institute of Health, 111 TW Alexander Dr, 27709, Durham, NC, USA
Received:
25
January
2024
Accepted:
6
March
2024
Published online:
25
March
2024
The impacts of pandemic situation on the health and economy of any nation are indeed significant. Several paradigms are present, where the nations’s economy has stumbled due to impact of infectious diseases. Hence, we formulate an econo-epidemics model to study economic impact of infectious disease. The structure is amalgamated with Solow growth functions to describe effect of epidemiological factors on economy. Numerous numerical experiments, viz. bifurcation analysis, production of capital growth profile, etc., is conducted to provide valuable insights into the potential outcomes and dynamics of the economy. Additionally, we consider the impact of demographic stochasticity on the economy of third-tier countries, Bangladesh and Tanzania, as these nations face unique challenges and vulnerabilities. Enumeration of probability of economic losses in upcoming years and stationary distributions on the capital growth data of those countries provide an outline of strengthening the economy after a period of depreciation caused by an infectious disease outbreak. Overall, the statistical experiments and analysis of capital data provide valuable information about the potential economic consequences of infectious diseases. This knowledge can guide the formulation of policies and schemes to mitigate economic disasters in the future and promote a resilient economy that is better prepared to handle pandemics.
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-024-05066-6.
Copyright comment Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
