https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-04707-6
Regular Article
Non-cooperative citizens and fear provide shelter for insurgents from military actions
1
Department of Mathematics, Nigerian Army University Biu, PMB 1500, Biu, Borno State, Nigeria
2
Department of Mathematics, Nigerian Defence Academy, Afaka, PMB 2109, Kaduna, Nigeria
Received:
22
July
2023
Accepted:
19
November
2023
Published online:
11
December
2023
Boko Haram and Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP) criminal activities have posed a significant threat to the Nigerian State. More recently, there has been infighting due to leadership tussle among Boko Haram and ISWAP members. In this study, we use a nonlinear ordinary differential equation to explore the role of citizen cooperation and the consequences of the infighting between Boko Haram and ISWAP on the stability of society. We derived some analytical proof of the system and conducted numerical simulations to verify our analytical proof. We summarize the rich dynamical properties of this insurgency model by changing two parameters of interest and obtain the following: backward bifurcation, transcritical bifurcation, supercritical and subcritical Hopf bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf-transcritical bifurcation, Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation, generalized Hopf bifurcation, Gavrilov–Guckenheimer bifurcation, and a tristability behavior. This study reveals that military tactics, in conjunction with citizen cooperation, provide the required mechanisms for the stabilization of the country by inhibiting the insurgent’s recruitment and main supply route. Another observed gain of robust citizen cooperation is that it reduces the diffusion rate of insurgencies in troubled regions. Furthermore, citizen cooperation promotes a high sense of tolerance, honesty, intelligence sharing, patriotism, and selflessness among the entire population. This work provides significant insights into the best strategy for curtailing insurgency and their consequences on society.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
