https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-022-03216-2
Regular Article
Analysis of COVID-19 in India using a vaccine epidemic model incorporating vaccine effectiveness and herd immunity
1
Department of Physics, Centre for Nonlinear Science and Engineering, School of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, SASTRA Deemed University, 613401, Thanjavur, India
2
Department of Nonlinear Dynamics, School of Physics, Bharathidasan University, 620024, Tiruchirappalli, India
Received:
18
July
2022
Accepted:
20
August
2022
Published online:
5
September
2022
COVID-19 will be a continuous threat to human population despite having a few vaccines at hand until we reach the endemic state through natural herd immunity and total immunization through universal vaccination. However, the vaccine acts as a practical tool for reducing the massive public health problem and the emerging economic consequences that the continuing COVID -19 epidemic is causing worldwide, while the vaccine efficacy wanes. In this work, we propose and analyze an epidemic model of Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Vaccinated population taking into account the rate of vaccination and vaccine waning. The dynamics of the model has been investigated, and the condition for a disease-free endemic equilibrium state is obtained. Further, the analysis is extended to study the COVID-19 spread in India by considering the availability of vaccines and the related critical parameters such as vaccination rate, vaccine efficacy and waning of vaccine’s impact on deciding the emerging fate of this epidemic. We have also discussed the conditions for herd immunity due to vaccinated individuals among the people. Our results highlight the importance of vaccines, the effectiveness of booster vaccination in protecting people from infection, and their importance in epidemic and pandemic modeling.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022. Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
