Fractional dynamical probes in COVID-19 model with control interventions: a comparative assessment of eight most affected countries
Ramanujan Institute for Advanced Study in Mathematics, University of Madras, 600005, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
Accepted: 3 March 2022
Published online: 19 March 2022
The ultimate aim of the article is to predict COVID-19 virus inter-cellular behavioral dynamics using an infection model with a quarantine compartment. Internal viral dynamics and stability attributes are thoroughly investigated around stable equilibrium states to probe possible ways in reducing rapid spread by incorporating fractional-order components into epidemic systems. Furthermore, a fractional optimal problem was built and studied with three control measures to restrict the widespread of COVID-19 infections and exhibit perfect protection. It is found that by following of control strategies can eradicate the infectives. Furthermore, the time frame of sixteen months has been divided into four short periods to grasp the pandemic, as the pandemic’s parameters change over time. Finally, using real data, we estimated the parameters of the model system and the expression of the basic reproduction number for the most affected countries, China, USA, UK, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, and Iran.
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022