A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy
2 INFN Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
3 Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy
4 INFN Sezione di Napoli, Naples, Italy
5 INFN Sezione di Milano Bicocca, Milano, Italy
6 INFN Sezione di Padova, Padova, Italy
7 Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Accepted: 23 March 2021
Published online: 11 April 2021
A simplified method to compute , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.
© The Author(s) 2021
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