https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-025-06719-w
Regular Article
Unraveling nipah virus transmission among bats, pigs, and humans: dynamics and control optimization
Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur, 711103, Howrah, India
a
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Received:
26
May
2025
Accepted:
2
August
2025
Published online:
10
September
2025
Abstract
Understanding the complex transmission dynamics of Nipah virus (NiV), a highly lethal zoonotic pathogen, requires robust mathematical models that accurately reflect its multi-host nature. This study develops a comprehensive compartmental model that explicitly incorporates the bat-to-pig-to-human transmission pathway, a critical yet often overlooked route in the existing literature. Given that fruit bats are the natural reservoirs of NiV and pigs serve as intermediate amplifiers, capturing these interactions is essential for predicting outbreak potential and devising effective control strategies. The proposed model also includes human-to-human transmission and infections arising from the handling of deceased individuals, thereby offering a holistic view of NiV spread. A rigorous theoretical analysis is conducted to examine the stability of disease-free, infected bat-and-pig-free, infected bat-free, and endemic equilibria. Also, sensitivity analysis is carried out in order to identify parameters with the greatest influence on transmission dynamics. The study further investigates transcritical bifurcations to understand how small changes in key parameters can qualitatively alter system behavior. Also, two-parameter bifurcations characterize critical threshold conditions and delineate regions where stability transitions. Lastly, optimal control theory is applied to assess the efficacy of hospitalization and safe burial interventions, revealing that their joint implementation markedly curbs the infection burden. Altogether, the study underscores the role of ecological and behavioral drivers, such as seasonal transmission variability and safe burial practices in shaping outbreak trajectories.
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
