Eur. Phys. J. Plus (2022) 137: 258
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-022-02465-5

Regular Article

Investigation from sensitivity to optimality for the transmission and detection of pine wilt disease

¹ Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan
² Department of Mathematics, University of the Punjab, New Campus, Lahore, Pakistan

^c aziz.math@pu.edu.pk

Received: 19 November 2021
Accepted: 8 February 2022
Published online: 22 February 2022

Abstract

Pine bark beetles with pinewood nematode attack on pine trees, causing the tree’s death. Substantial economic losses occur as a result of pine wilt affliction. In this study, a mathematical model has been developed to understand the transmission mechanism of pine wilt disease. A mathematical model comprising a coupled system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations has been studied rigorously. The present work involves the calculation of different parameters, including “basic reproduction number” $R_o$ and qualitative and quantitative study of the model. Quantitative analysis includes the calculation of constant solutions of the model and their global behavior. The quantitative study involves estimating the parameters using the accurate data of pine trees that the nematode destroyed during the decade. The key parameters have been identified, and a very efficient technique, stochastic intelligent computational heuristics, has been used to observe the fitness curves for the most influential parameters. Infectious hosts (pine trees) and vectors (bark beetles) are thoroughly examined through the fitness curves concerning the most influential parameters. Control policies have been suggested to check their robustness along with the graphical results. The graphical results agree with the analytical findings endorsing the efficiency of applied controls.